If you are a loyal reader, you may have noticed that things are a little different around here these days. The reason why I haven't been posting was due to my account somehow getting locked and inaccessible. So this is actually a brand new blog, but don't worry, because all of your favorite profane basketball analysis has not changed. If you want to visit the old site, it can still be found at rjliggins.blogspot.com.
Alright, so now that we've established that, let's focus on what's really important: It's March, which means the most beautiful time in basketball is here. That's right, it's tourney time. Which means it's time to get your bracket and act like you're a basketball expert. Lucky for you, I'm an actual basketball expert, as well as an expert in malt liquor, ninja shit, and global economics.
Meaning I'm basically Black Dynamite
As we discussed last year, no number 1 seed has ever lost to a 16 seed and as shaky as Duke looks as a number 1 seed, it's still fucking Duke. So no 16 seed is cashing in on the greatest upset this year. All the 1 seeds advance to the next round. Let's dive into the regions, starting with the Midwest.
[Editor's note: I posted this a little late, which means you all know that I'm incredibly wrong on some of these. To which I say, fuck you and your couch. Enjoy!]
ROUND OF 64 AKA WTF IS HAPPENING?!?!
MIDWEST
#8 Cincinnati vs #9 Purdue
Pick: Cincy
I was going to pick Purdue. I didn't trust the fact that the Bearcats still don't really have an offense that can blow a team out. I also didn't love the fact that there's been games this season where the Cats have gotten the brakes beaten off them. But after taking a close look, I realized Purdue might actually be the shakier team. Sure, most of their losses are by close margins and they don't have losses on their resume like East Carolina and Tulane (yikes), but they haven't had much success on the road this season. Factor in the fact that Cincy is known for the playing Memphis-Grizzles-grit-it-out style defense, and I'm sold on them scoring at least enough to get to the next round.
#5 West Virginia vs #12 Buffalo
Pick: West Virginia
Uh oh! The dreaded 5 seed vs 12 seed match up. If you're new to the tournament, here's something you need to know: Every year, without fail, a 12 seed will upset a 5 seed. It's basically a law at this point. It's a certain as death, taxes, and Gregg Popovich making a sideline reporter feel like they're five years old.
David Aldridge is trying his hardest to not cry
West Virginia has been at the mercy of the clusterfuck known as the Big 12 this season. All year the top teams in the conference have taken turns pistol whipping each other, so who knows how good these teams actually are. With that said, picking them to losing in the opening round suggests I'm crazy enough to bet against coach Bob Huggins. Even thinking that puts me in danger of him tracking me down and personally strangling me. Also, Buffalo's mascot is the bulls. Really? I can't reward such a blatant lack of creativity. Adidos Buffalo.
#4 Maryland vs #13 Valparaiso
Pick: Maryland
Valpo is back in the tourney, baby! Which means we might as well get used to watching replays of their buzzer beating upset in 1998. Thanks for inspiring my coaches to run a play that has never, ever worked for anybody other than you, Valpo.
The Terps are stacked with NBA caliber talent in Melo Trimble, Dez Wells, and Jake Laymen. They've turned around their bizarre January and are looking like contenders again. Sorry Valpo, it isn't meant to be. We'll also remember you though.
#6 Butler vs #11 Texas
Pick: Butler
What the hell happened to Texas this year? They were hyped as national championship contenders at the beginning of the season, so why do I feel like they got lucky getting an 11 seed? I'm just going to say it, Rick Barnes is a terrible coach. One of the worst decision makers I've ever seen. Keep in mind I have to watch Mark Few blow big game after big game on a regular basis.
Don't you know, Mark? NO ONE IS SAFE ON THE BLOG!
Butler is terrifying this year though, which doesn't help the Horn's case at all. Something tells me we could be seeing some more tourney magic out of this program this year.
#3 Notre Dame vs #14 Northeastern
Pick: Northeastern
"What?! Didn't the Irish just beat Duke?! Weren't they one of the best teams in the ACC this year?!?! Just who the hell do you think you are!" First off, you shut your mouth when you're talking to me. Second, I'm the expert, remember? We covered this in the intro. Third, Notre Dame is not to be trusted come tourney time. They are a feast or famine team, which means they shoot a shit ton of threes and don't play much defense. Now if those threes are falling, then watch out because they're probably going to run you out of the gym. When those shots aren't falling though? They are extremely beatable. While Jerian Grant could go Super Saiyan during the tournament, as he has throughout the year, this smells like an upset. Do I know anything about Northeastern? No, but I also don't know anything about open heart surgery and that still hasn't stopped me from moonlighting shifts at the ER. Also, do you remember the last time a feast or famine ACC team with an NBA lottery pick played a 14 seed?
Oh yeah...
#7 Wichita State vs #10 Indiana
Pick: Wichita State
Oh man, this is a tough pick. While Indiana has been completely unpredictable this year, they've also had moments where they've looked incredible. Here's the thing though, after enduring a year of complete scrutiny and being upset by the national runner-ups last season, the Shockers have been flying under the radar this year. They have an All-American caliber point guard in Fred VanVleet and arguabley the most underrated white player in the form of Ron Baker. Factor in the fact that Tom Creen will undoubtably shoot himself in the foot at some point and the Shockers seem like a lock to me.
#2 Kansas vs #15 New Mexico State
Pick: Kansas
Blue blood school that managed to survive the savage Big 12 regular season. That's all you need to know about Kansas. The classic Jayhawks tourney collapse isn't happening this early, but it'll come. Just wait. To borrow from Rick Pitino, Mario Chalmers isn't walking through the door anytime soon.
WEST REGION
#8 Oregon vs #9 Oklahoma St
Pick: Oregon
Considering everything that happened to Oregon's basketball program before the start of the season, it is amazing that they are once again in the NCAA tournament. I mean seriously, no one expected to see Oregon, or the "Fighting Ducks" as they are known to the basketball world, having any kind of success this season. Looking past their three losses to Arizona, whom beat them as if they stole something in all three games, the fact is Oregon can flat out score, usually scoring near 70 to 80 points a game. In order for the Cowboys to have a chance in this game they are going to need to control the tempo and the pace, which they were able to do against the high-octane offense of Iowa State during conference play. Granted they lost those games, but they kept it very close. Bottom line, I don't trust the Cowboys versus a team that has seen so much adversity throughout the season. Quack Quack motherfuckers.
The best play in the nation!!
#5 Arkansas vs #12 Wofford
Pick: Wofford
Poor Arkansas, they were the second best team in the SEC this year, which is a nice way of saying they spent a good portion of the season as Kentucky's personal punching bag. They're a talented bunch led by Bobby Portis, whom averages almost 18 points a game. However, did you know Wofford is 10-5 away from home and are a perfect 5-0 on a neutral court? And what have we here? A 5 versus 12 matchup? You know what that means!
Here's the main reason I'm not buying Arkansas stock, even though they very well could be an excellent sleeper to make a sweet 16 run: It's hard to bounce back from a beat down, and their last game against Kentucky they got absolutely destroyed despite a strong start. I imagine Arkansas will be looking as shellshocked as Elmer Fudd versus the Monstars in the second half.
Or Foghorn Leghorn versus Karl-Anthony Towns
#4 North Carolina vs #13 Harvard
Pick: North Carolina
Harvard is a scary draw, especially considering they have been upsetting teams in the first round for two straight years. They thrive playing as a double digit seed and you can bet your ass they are not afraid of matching up with basketball blue bloods, North Carolina. While UNC hasn't sniffed a championship since the days of Raymond Felton and Rashard McCants, this team has survived the second toughest schedule in the nation, which means something? I guess?
The main reason I'm turning my back on Harvard for the first time ever, is because they simply haven't beaten anyone worthwhile. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels worst loss this season was against Pitt, which is an embarrassment in its own right, but it also speaks to the caliber of competition these guys have been playing. I think North Carolina survives the scare and moves on.
#6 Xavier vs #11 BYU/ Mississippi but let's be real it's gonna be BYU
Pick: BYU
I've said it from the very beginning of the season that this group of Mormons is not to be fucked with. And you know what? I was right. The Cougars snapped the longest home winning streak in the nation when they beat the Zags in Spokane. BYU is tough because they're crazy relentless on the glass, especially on the offensive end. Tyler Hawes is one of the best scorers in the nation and is a deadly marksman behind the arc. I will now jump off of something very high because I've endorsed this team. [Editors note!!!!! BYU lost last night, so abort this plan! This was a terrible idea, why would you listen to me! Xavier! Xavier moves on.]
#3 Baylor vs #14 Georgia State
Pick: Baylor
My main concern with this game is the fact that Baylor plays in the Big 12. This could mean that teams are worn out from spending all of conference play beating the shit out of each other. However, the Sun Belt champions don't exactly strike fear into my heart. I mean, they recently beat Georgia Southern 38-36. I repeat, 38-36!!! I've seen fifth grade YMCA games have higher scores than that. Granted the Panthers have had a few high scoring games but those came against jabronis. The Bears advance.
#7 VCU vs #11 Ohio State
Pick: VCU
Last year I said to never bet against Shaka Smart and the Rams in March. And I would've totally been right had one of the craziest endings I've ever witnessed never happened. Allow me to refresh your memory. VCU was at the free throw line up by 4 against Stephen F. Austin with 10.5 seconds left. And that should've been the end of the story right there because something batshit insane would have to happen in order to lose that lead. Well, VCU misses both free throws and then proceeds to foul a SFAU player that was shooting a three. Of course he made the three and then the following free throw to tie the game. VCU would go on to lose in overtime. Again, THEY WERE UP BY 4 POINTS WITH 10 SECONDS LEFT AND SHOOTING TWO FREE THROWS!!!
So despite the avalanche of shit that landed on the Rams last year, I still don't bet against Shaka Smart. Ohio State should be a tough test considering they have super freshman D'Angelo Russell. However, the Buckeyes only have one impressive win under their belt and that was the home game where they demolished a slumping Maryland team. It's going take more than that to contain the Havoc.
#2 Arizona vs #15 Texas Southern
Pick: Arizona
I'll put it this way. When Arizona played Gonzaga in December, the Zags outplayed the Cats for 99% of the game and Zona still managed to hold on and win. Gonzaga played Texas Southern and slapped up 94 points on their way to a 40 point win. So this is a no brainer.
EAST REGION
#8 North Carolina State vs #9 Louisiana State
Pick: NC State
I had no idea who to pick to win this game, I almost resorted to my shotgunning beers strategy I used last year. Alright fine, you got me. I still shotgunned those beers. But I didn't need those to make my decision. I'm the expert, remember?
So whoever wins this game could be the one to make a Cinderella tear through the Sweet Sixteen, where Cinderellas go to die. NC State certainly has the advantage when it comes to marquee wins over Duke, Louisville, and North Carolina. While people are sipping the LSU Kool-aid, I can't trust a team that lost seven games in the SEC, with only one of those games being Kentucky.
#5 University of Northern Iowa vs. #12 Wyoming
Pick: UNI
I recently read a bunch of articles about how the 12 over 5 upset is a fallacy and how the 5 seed wins 63% of the time over the 12 seed. While that does mean that a vast majority of the time the higher seed wins this matchup, it neglects to mention that 33% of the time the 12 seed DOES prevail and move into the next round. I'm not great at math, but there are four opportunities to pick the upset in a bracket. If the higher seed wins 63% of the time in those four games, then that means the over/ under is 2.5 teams with the 5th seed are moving on. Meaning there's still a good shot that at least ONE of the 12 seeds will score the upset.
Now that I've gotten that out of my system, this is not one of those games. Northern Iowa, baby.
#4 Louisville vs #13 UC-Irvine
Pick: Louisville
This has been a really weird season from the Cardinals. Their starting point guard was dismissed from the team for the rest of the season, they were inconsistent during conference play, and their offense is usually somewhere between horrifically stagnant to so confused you would think they were playing soccer.
Three pointer!!!
Lousiville is like the Bizarro-Notre Dame. They struggle mightily on offense but are still freaking awesome defensively, especially in the full court. Of course, just like Notre Dame, they are a feast or famine team. When that press is locked in and creating turnovers? Good lord. But when a team shows poise and picks apart the press for easy baskets, the Cards suddenly become sitting ducks. Keep this in mind going forward with Pitino's crew.
#6 Providence vs #11 Dayton
Pick: Providence
Dayton hasn't lost at home this season, so when they play the play-in game against Boise State in freaking Dayton, they're probably going to win. Moving on to the game against the Friars, this should be a fun one. Historically, both programs are known for getting up and down the floor and playing an offense-favorable game. Last year Dayton played Cinderella in a memorable tourney run while Providence fell in the first round as the 11-seed to North Carolina, despite being the Big East Tournament champions. Now, when I can't make up my mind on who I think is going to win, I take a look at the team's worst losses and compare them.
So both teams ended up losing by 10 in their "worst" games of the season. Providence, somehow, lost to freaking Brown and Dayton suffered a loss to former tourney regular-turned-jabroni, Duquesne. Those are pretty bad losses, bro. At least Dayton's loss happened on the road. Granted that loss also came in February, while Providence's disgraceful loss came in early December when teams are still figuring themselves out. So really what this all means is, um, fuck it, Providence!
#3 Oklahoma vs #14 Albany
Pick: Oklahoma
It makes me a little nervous that the Sooners are everyones "safe pick" as far as the 3 seeds go this year. Usually when everyone jumps on a bandwagon, that means it's time to fucking bail. But let's see where this goes. Oklahoma definitely has the scoring ability and size to run rampant in the tournament, although they did lose to U-Dub this season which is a disgrace in itself (that's right city of Seattle, SHOTS FIRED!).
#7 Michigan State vs #10 Georgia
Pick: Michigan State
Oh my beloved Sparty's. Why would the selection committee curse you to match up with the team that gave Kentucky a legitimate scare in the first round? To top it off, this have been the least talented team Izzo has had to coach in years. They started the year as an absolute train wreck. I mean, they lost to Texas Southern. Granted they are a "tournament team" but we established what lies ahead for Texas Southern earlier (feel free to scroll up if you don't remember).
Since that bizarre December, the Spartans have been far from world beaters, but have definitely began to look more like the Michigan State we all know and love. Really the only thing Georgia has going for them is the reputation that they came close to beating Kentucky. Look, just because you flirted with Scarlett Johansson and came close to taking her home, doesn't mean that you actually accomplished something. So yeah, you can tell your friends that you almost banged ScarJo, but all you're gonna hear at the end is a sarcastic, "Cool story, bro". That's how I feel about Georgia.
#2 Virginia vs #15 Belmont
Pick: Virginia
Boy, talk about a team that hasn't looked quite like itself lately. The Hoos went from looking invincible to just not looking right. Despite this, they still basically dominated the ACC and reminded people that, oh yeah, COLLEGE BASKETBALL ISN'T SUPPOSED TO LOOK LIKE THE NBA IT'S SUPPOSED TO LOOK LIKE THIS! Also consider this, Virginia has only lost three times this season to Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville, by a combined 12 points. So, screw you selection committee because these guys should've been a 1 seed.
SOUTH REGION
#8 San Diego State vs #9 St. Johns
Pick: San Diego State
St. Johns is a dangerous squad in the field, however, they are wildly inconsistent. San Diego State is an absolute terror on the defensive end, yet they have more trouble scoring than Steve Carrell in The 40 Year Old Virgin. In other words, it's another 8 versus 9 crapshoot! Hurray!
"Offense?"
When in a position like this, you got to go with the program that has had the most success in March over recent years. The Aztecs have been regulars in the Sweet Sixteen the past few years, which is good enough for me to put them in the next round.
#5 Utah vs #12 Stephen F. Austin
#4 Georgetown vs. #13 Eastern Washington
Wait a second, these two games are paired up with each other? This can only mean one thing....THE WTF GAME!!!!!
For those of you new to how we do things on this blog, lemme recap by sharing what I wrote last year. "I combined this section because I feel like every year there is a double upset that leads to two teams with low seeds battling it out for a sweet sixteen spot. I like to call this game the WTF game. So when I was browsing the bracket, this low seed combination seemed to jump out the most...The most wonderful game of the tournament as we as fans wonder how exactly we got here...Well, historically, the WTF game is a product of incredible failure by a superior team and incredible circumstance that allows one of these teams to move onto the sweet sixteen."
And you know what? I was right! Well, kind of. There was a WTF game, I just picked the wrong games. And I completely admit that at first it seemed like there would be no WTF game in this year's bracket. But logic be damned because every year there needs to be a WTF game, so I'm going with this matchup. I'm thoroughly convinced that Eastern Washington will earn the upset. SFAU is a considerable stretch, especially considering that they advanced last season due to unremarkable-never-to-be-duplicated-circumstance (we covered this earlier). The thing with the NCAA tourney, especially in the opening rounds, is sometimes it's better to be lucky than good, and damnit I have a feeling the magic lives on with this program!
#6 SMU vs #11 UCLA
Pick: SMU
So Gonzaga played both of these teams earlier in the year, and the Zags beat the bejeezus out of both squads. The Bruins made a late season push that, by a sheer miracle, got them into the field. Meanwhile, SMU remained steady, beating the teams they were supposed to and winning the good-not-great AAC conference. Both squads feel that they have a chip on their shoulder, which means this game could be a bloodbath. SMU feels they need to vindicate themselves after being dismissed from the field last season, despite having more than enough on their resume to qualify. This year, UCLA will be battling for their pride after being dismissed as a team that got in on their name and not their actual basketball ability. If I know anything about SMU coach Next Town Larry Brown, I know that he operates at his best when he's got a bone to pick with someone, in this case the NCAA selection committee. I'm sure the UCLA selection only added fuel to his grudge against the system, which means his team will prevail.
#3 Iowa State vs #14UAB
Pick: Iowa State
I didn't even bother doing research for this pick. Iowa State is basically an NBA team that doesn't pay their players. Their offense is about as potent as the sun and they have the size to matchup with any team in the nation, except maybe Kentucky because they're the real life Monstars.
#7 Iowa vs #10 Davidson
Pick: Iowa
The Atlantic 10 is definitely a force to be reckoned with and may have been deeper than the Big 10 this year. However, unless Steph Curry is planning on suiting up for this Davidson squad, I'm not completely sold on them.
#2 Gonzaga vs #15 North Dakota State
Pick: Zags
So remember how I was saying that once the bandwagon starts to get a little full it's time to bail like there's no tomorrow? Well, what do you do when the bandwagon is split down the middle? Besides Duke, Gonzaga is the most polarizing team in the tourney. Analysts love them, fans outside of Spokane haaaaatttteee them. On paper, and based on the eye test, this would appear to be the most talented Gonzaga team ever. While this squad is certainly the best in a long time, I argue that the 2009 squad was actually more talented (feel free to look it up if you don't believe me http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%9309_Gonzaga_Bulldogs_men's_basketball_team). That team could've have made a Final Four run had they not ran into the North Carolina buzzsaw that year. Luckily for GU, the buzzsaw (Kentucky) is on the other side of the bracket. But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Even if you think Gonzaga is overrated, they almost always win their first game of the tourney. This year is no different.
ROUND OF 32 AKA WHERE YOU EITHER BRAG OF YOUR GENIUS OR CRY ABOUT YOUR DESTROYED BRACKET
MIDWEST REGION
#1 Kentucky vs #8 Cincy
Pick: Kentucky
Have you noticed that I haven't actually wrote anything about a Kentucky game yet but still managed to mention them like 900 times already? Well, that's because Kentucky is really fucking good. I wasn't kidding when I compared them to the Monstars. If anything, they are some other aliens that came and stole the Monstars' talent and transformed into Super Saiyan Monstars.
I think Cincy is going to swing hard at the Wildcats, but the thing is, that's all Kentucky has been facing this season. They basically pull the Rocky strategy from Rocky III where Rock decides to pretty much eat haymakers to the face, wait for Clubber Lang to tire out, and then just start destroying the opponent with an unholy fire of hooks and haymakers. Face it, the only team beating these guys might just be themselves.
#5 WVU vs #4 Maryland
Pick: Maryland
Guards are the difference maker when it comes to March Madness, and the Terps are loaded at that position. That's really the only reasoning I have behind this pick, so sue me.
#6 Butler vs #11 Northeastern
Pick: Butler
If Rick Barnes wasn't such an awful coach, this would have been the traditional WTF game. However, Butler is too good to fall victim to that, meaning they should in theory have a cake walk in the next game versus a Northeastern team that got lucky Notre Dame shot themselves in the foot. I'm seriously starting to get scared that Butler is due for another mind-boggling March.
#2 Kansas vs #7 Wichita Sate
Is this it? Is this where it happens? The classic Jayhawk March implosion? Honestly, I'm not sure but there's definitely some factors that support that theory. It starts with the Cold War-esque in-state rivalry between the two schools. Both are located in Kansas, yet these two teams don't ever face off during the year, no matter how badly the Shockers want to play the Jayhawks. This reminds me of Dayton's bloodthirst last year when they played Ohio State and beat them in the tournament.
Here's the thing though, people really underestimate how solid this Kansas team is. I mean, they did manage to win the conference regular season title despite the fact that the Big 12 resembled the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan for most of the year.They have NBA ready players as well as size that could disrupt the Shockers, which ultimately was their downfall against Kentucky last year when the Wildcats dominated the glass.
With that said, I wouldn't mess with this pissed off Wichita Squad.
Pick: Wichita State
WEST REGION
#1 Wisconsin vs #8 Oregon
Pick: Wisconsin
This Wisconsin team is terrifying when at full strength. Fortunately for the Ducks, they are not at full strength. Unfortunately for the Ducks, that doesn't really matter. They have potential national player of the year Frank Kaminsky, and a starting unit that scores as well as they defend. This team is the definition of balance.
This could be a stretch, but this team reminders me of the 2013-2014 San Antonio Spurs. They lose the previous year on a heartbreaking three pointer only to come back with the exact same fucking team and vengeance on their mind. Stay tuned because something tells me this analogy is gonna work even better later on.
#4 North Carolina vs #12 Wofford
Pick: North Carolina
I mean, come on. Not even Roy Williams and his phony academics could screw this up.
#3 Baylor vs #6 Xavier
Pick: Baylor
The question here basically boils down to who do you trust more: The team that went .500 against the third best conference in America or the the team that went 11-7 against the second best conference in America? Your gut says the latter, right? Especially when you consider that I originally had BYU squaring off against the Bears in this round. But what if, just IF, Xavier wins their first round matchup, couldn't that start an avalanche of momentum that can get them to the Sweet Sixteen? Also, according to Grantland's Moneybracket article, the 3 seeds are meant to be avoided at all cost this year.
I'll value that caution later. In the meantime, I'm going to bet on the team that went 11-7 in the country's most homicidal conference. Also, I can't pick a team that I didn't even think would be here a few days ago.
#2 Arizona vs #7 VCU
Oh, you're going to be one of those people this year, huh? Hitching your wagon to Arizona because they're the sexy-non-one-seed-that-could-win-the-whole-thing, eh? That's real original buddy, way to be a think-for-yourselfer. Did you even watch Arizona this year?
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Well, I did. And they blew the church doors off of almost every Pac-12 team they faced. Even with their problems, they're still one of the most dangerous teams in the field. So, yeah, sorry about basically calling you a jabroni for picking this game.
Pick: Arizona
EAST REGION
#1 Villanova vs #8 NC State
Pick: Villanova
They should bill this game as the Wildcats vs. the Wildcards, because who knows which NC State team is going to show up. Here's what we know for sure though, Villanova is really, really good. Besides a couple of hiccups in January, Nova pretty much left a scorching crater when they were done with the Big East.
On top of that, they've been awesome in road games and games on neutral courts. Much like Wisconsin, this is an upper classman loaded squad that may be even more balanced than the Badgers. Nova might be the scariest team no one is talking about.
#4 Louisville vs #5 UNI
Pick: ?!?!
I trust Louisville's offense about as much as I trust condoms purchased at a gas station restroom vending machine.
Seems legit
With that said, I don't really know too much about the Panthers other than the fact that they knocked off #1 Kansas a few years ago on one of the balliest three pointers I've ever seen in my life. According to the stats, this season UNI has held opponents to 54 points a game. Hmmmk, sounds like the Cards might have trouble reaching that. Let's see what the Cards ar-OH MY LANTA! Louisville scores about 69 points per game, did not see that coming. Granted, most of that came when they had starting point guard Chris Jones. So, I still don't really know what to make of this game. Damnit, we're going shotgun method! Taking one beer labeled Louisville, the other UNI. Whichever one I shotgun the fastest is going to win.
Pick: Louisville
#3 Oklahoma vs #6 Providence
Pick: Oklahoma
Providence and Oklahoma aren't going to be scared of each other, especially since they've been battling some of the best teams in the nation all season. This is going to be another up and down slugfest. The Sooners seem to just be the better team in this matchup, though.
#2 Virginia vs #7 Michigan State
Pick: Virginia
Last season these two teams locked horns and the Sparty's walked away as the champions of that fight. So the selection committee decided, fuck it, let's run it back. And that's great! Here's what I wrote last year:
This will be a good one. Virginia is one of those teams that won’t back down from a big game. They have had a magical season and you can bet everything you have that they will do anything to keep it rolling. They run one of the most efficient offenses in the country, working the defense and the shot clock until they get the absolute best shot. And that will work against the defense deficient ACC. Against the grind it out Big Ten? That’s just asking for it. Michigan State is great at dictating tempo and they are solid in the half-court defensive set. Their ability to cause turnovers will take good shots away from the Cavs and force them into an up and down game which is their weakness and one of Michigan State’s strengths.
This all still applies for this years game. It comes with a couple of caveats though: As mentioned earlier, this Sparty squad isn't anywhere as talent as the super-hyped team from a year ago. Virginia isn't also as invincible as they were a year ago ever since one of their top players went down with an injury a few weeks ago. Tom Izzo is a hell of a coach that is always in the running for an Elite Eight or Final Four spot. Tony Bennett is no slouch either, and you can bet that he will take the lessons learned from a year ago and apply it this game. That will ultimately be the difference maker. Virginia has already been in this spot and this year they will be taking on a more vulnerable Michigan State squad.
WEST REGION
#1 Duke vs #8 San Diego State
Pick: Duke
I'm in the camp that believes Duke should not have been awarded a number 1 seed, let alone in the easiest region in the bracket. They are a shaky team that has blown some pretty bad games this year. They are in for a battle with the defensive minded Aztecs. Duke, much like Notre Dame, is a three point happy team that doesn't have much interest in defense. The Aztecs also have the length and athleticism to battle the Blue Devils and disrupt their three point looks.
As unconvincing as they are as a 1 seed, this is still arguably the only team in the nation with more talent than Kentucky. And they have proven in big games that they've got the goods to play with anyone in the nation. While brick-city Duke could rear its ugly head at any moment during the tournament, beast-mode Duke also has the possibility of showing up and bending over everyone in the field. Because when Duke is on, they are fucking ON. This game will likely be an ugly one, but even an off night for Duke should be enough to knock off the offensively deficit Aztecs.
THE WTF GAME!!!!
#12 SFAU vs #13 Eastern Washington
Pick: EWU
Behold its glory! A 12 versus 13 game to decide who moves onto the Sweet Sixteen, better known as the WTF game. These games are usually a lot of fun because both squads suddenly feel like the team of destiny and that they have a real shot at the Final Four. Eastern Washington seems more like the team of destiny, though. They have a player that led the nation in scoring despite being a walk on that every D-1 program passed over. They had the big win in Bloomington against blue-blooded Indiana, which was the first sign of a potential Cinderella. Also, how cool would it be if Gonzaga and the Eagles ended up throwing down at some point in the bracket? The schools are literally 20 minutes away from each other and that's a storyline too good to pass up. Eastern Washington is this year's Cinderella.
#3 Iowa State vs #6 SMU
Pick: Iowa State
SMU are no slouches, and like I said earlier, they have a huge chip on their shoulder considering they were passed over completely last year. Iowa State might have a bigger chip, though. They were pegged as potential title favorites before losing their best player to injury and running into Shabazz Napier as he was discovering God mode. While SMU feels they should have been a tournament team last year, Iowa State has to feel like they should've been a Final Four team last year. Both coaches have NBA backgrounds as players and coaches. Iowa State actually resembles an NBA team though with their system. How this translates to NCAA success is yet to be seen, but it is something to consider in this matchup. Iowa State is too good to get bounced in the second round.
#2 Gonzaga vs #7 Iowa
Pick: Gonzaga
While the selection committee was no doubt hoping for the 2008 rematch between Davidson and Gonzaga, it likely isn't going to happen. Now, Gonzaga maxing out their potential should make them a title contender, in theory. They're starting perimeter features seniors that have played in multiple huge games. They have incredible size, and depth, in the frontcourt for the first time since 2012. They also have All-American candidate in Kyle Wiltjer. This is where I'm going to point out a huge flaw with the Zags that could ultimately cost them.
Mark Few has no clue what to do with the three-headed frontcourt monster in close games. I've watched it so many times this season almost cost Gonzaga, and against BYU and Arizona, it actually did result in losses. Few likes to start the game going hard with Przemek Karnowski, the 7-footer that has become a force in the paint. He starts with this strategy and then, basically ignores him the rest of the game in favor of a Sabonis-Wiltjer combination. This happened in the Arizona game where Karnowski was eating Arizona's giant frontcourt alive. Then if the game gets close, he favors the freshman, Sabonis (potential one and done player, by the way. Stay tuned), over either Wiltjer or Karnowski. Now having that much depth is a huge advantage, but with Mark Few's reputation for crapping the bed in big games, this convolutes things.
Luckily the Zags have Kevin motherfucking Pangos, and if he gets loose early in the game then Iowa, and everyone else for the matter, is in big trouble. Pangos has been the starting point guard for every heartbreaking loss the Zags have had the past three years and you know he's going to do whatever to drag this team to the Sweet Sixteen. Few be damned. This could be the year for the tournament's most tormented program. *Knocks on every single piece of fucking wood in my vicinity* Also we've made it through two rounds and I haven't mentioned his remarkable hair.
STAY TURNED FOR SWEET SIXTEEN AND ELITE EIGHT PREDICTIONS
Stats, pics, and other shit you don't care about courtesy of:
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http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-men/d1
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison
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http://guardianlv.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/NCAA-Tournament-Team-Bio-Cincinnati-Bearcats.jpg
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http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Mark+Few+abeLXXh0v_2m.jpg
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/7e9ff863b38f8c81d34181557e8cf3b61780aefd/c=213-0-3975-2826&r=x404&c=534x401/local/-/media/USATODAY/USATODAY/2014/03/21//1395427013000-USP-NCAA-Basketball-NCAA-Tournament-2nd-Round-Duk.jpg
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http://i.usatoday.net/sports/_photos/2011/07/20/Cavaliers-slowly-rebuilding-basketball-roster-JE7SU2I-x-large.jpg
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https://espngrantland.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/pangos6.jpg?w=694
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