Friday, April 17, 2015

Russell is Good; Anthony is Better

By Matt Lyons

Russell Westbrook is without a doubt having a season basketball fans will remember for a while. When he eventually becomes a free agent, it is all people will reference when he hits the market. His season is so great in fact, that his PER with his current statistics beats every season The Big O ever had based on PER and his season statistics.


 
Now, obviously if you look you can see Robertson’s statistics are better, and the one I find most notable is true shooting percentage. Oscar did not have a 3-point line, so we will never know if he had worked on his shot enough to outshoot Westbrook (my guess is that he could). PER measures a player’s effectiveness per minute while he is on the floor. (Quick note: LeBron appears on the top 100 for PER 4-times, never once as a member of the Miami Heat)

And that my friends, is how we dismiss Russ’s entire season.


Analysts on the other hand discuss Anthony Davis less because the Hornelicans have been pretty horrible the last few years. The Thunder are noticed more because they have won in seasons past and injuries have plagued them this year. The numbers Russ puts up are ridiculous. However, of everybody who has started 60 games since people have been tracking usage rate (I do not know which year), Russ has the 2nd highest of all time.








JJ Redick, who really doesn’t matter, had this to say about Russ deserving the MVP (watch until 36:20):
 
https://youtu.be/pB0CTz5QlOw?t=35m

You’ll notice Bernard King is the only big man on that screenshot I provided. It is natural for big men to have lesser usage rates than guards because guards bring the ball up the court, get more assists, fastbreak opportunities, and with the 3-point line have an advantage (analytics say corner and most 3-balls are better than any 2-point shot unless it is close to the basket). Bringing the ball up the court is where Russ’s usage rate is impacted. If you watch most highlights of his, they are him running with reckless abandon toward the rim and it is entertaining as fuck to watch.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axfuXEBa-Bo


Onto The Brow’s season. Taking his season statistics and pairing them with PER, he is having one of the best seasons of all-time, if not the best in the modern era. I did check to see how he compared to Wilt, and Wilt’s highest PER was 31.8. The Brow sits at 31.0 with one game left against the Spurs this year.








Davis’s season is better than Westbrook’s because of his efficiency. He averages 4 less points than Westbrook, shoots 8 percentage points higher (which he shoots closer so has an advantage), the 10% less usage rate and has a higher impact on defense. He is actually in the top 20 of both Offensive and Defensive Win Shares and Westbrook isn’t. If you think defensive win shares would be hard for Westbrook to attain, just know that James Harden is in the top 20 as well. Harden also hasn’t been helped in defensive win shares that much because Dwight Howard has been hurt for a large portion of the year. So that makes it worth pointing out Russ is not in this top 20.


Davis actually is fun to watch, but not exceptionally fun to watch like Westbrook. He’s athletic and he’s the new breed of big man with mid-range game, but he still lacks the footwork of an Olajuwon or a Duncan. He’ll get there in a year or two because of his athleticism and ethic, but defense is where he is entertaining. Anyway, Davis’s usage rate is 27.6. That means Russ is getting 11 more plays for him out of 100 possessions.








Like mentioned, Davis on defense is what we know him for.


Watch out for him on an offensive highlight video coming to you soon though



Overall, Davis is doing what people would say is no doubt an MVP caliber season, it’s just his team isn’t there yet. Westbrook on the other hand is going absolutely berserk and will have a season to talk about for ages, but the usage rate can never be ignored. Obviously if we wanted to talk MVP actually, Curry and Harden are still the obvious two. Davis just deserves more consideration due to his efficiency and effectiveness on a team that has Jimmer Fredette. NOLA leads a tiebreaker with OKC for the 8-seed going into the last games of the year. We’ll just have to see who is more clutch.

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